31 October 2026 Published by Silicon Valley Innovation ไทย

Thai Travel Trade

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Thai arrivals trail 2025 by 3.9% as Chinese visitors return

China sent 4 million visitors by early October, yet the Chinese target of 6.7 million for the year looks out of reach.

By Thai Travel Trade Desk · · 4 min read

อ่านภาษาไทย

Tourists photographing the gilded guardian statue and roofs of the Grand Palace in Bangkok on a clear day, seen from behind and the side
Visitors at the Grand Palace in Bangkok; illustrative, not a picture of the arrivals figuresPhoto by Uncle Lim on Unsplash

Thailand had welcomed 23,452,895 foreign visitors by 3 October 2026, which is 3.88% fewer than at the same point in 2025. Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul gave the figure on 5 October, as reported by The Nation. Foreign tourism revenue for the period came to 1.142 trillion baht, down 2.26%.

The shortfall widened during September. At the end of August the ministry counted 20,935,135 arrivals, a fall of 3.08%, The Nation reported.

The target has already moved

Thailand began the year aiming for about 36.7 million foreign visitors. In April the target was lowered to about 32.14 million, Bernama reported in July, citing higher travel costs and economic uncertainty. Bernama does not say who announced the cut.

For comparison, 2025 ended at 32,974,321 arrivals, down 7.23% from 2024, and international tourism revenue of 1.537 trillion baht, down 4.71%, according to ministry data published by The Nation. The ministry now expects 2026 to stay close to 2025 levels, The Nation reported.

The arithmetic is demanding. Reaching 32.14 million from 23.45 million needs about 8.7 million arrivals in the 89 days from 4 October to 31 December, or roughly 97,600 a day. The most recent week, 27 September to 3 October, averaged 74,647 a day, even with a Chinese holiday boosting the count. These are our calculations from the ministry's figures, not an official forecast.

China is back, almost everyone else is not

China is the one large market moving the right way. It sent 3,999,854 visitors by 3 October. By the end of August the figure was 3,543,272, up 16.05% on a year earlier. In the week of China's National Day Golden Week, Chinese arrivals jumped 41.98% on the week before to 133,946.

The recovery follows a bad 2025, when Chinese arrivals fell 33.55% to 4,473,992. Thapanee Kiatphaibool, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), blamed weak sentiment after the kidnapping of Chinese actor Wang Xing, who was taken to a scam centre in Myanmar, plus natural disasters in the second half. In December 2025 TAT set a 2026 goal of about 6.7 million Chinese visitors, the 2024 level. On the ministry's count that would need roughly 2.7 million more Chinese arrivals in the last twelve weeks of the year, about 225,000 a week, against 133,946 in the Golden Week peak. Again, that is our arithmetic.

Elsewhere the picture is mixed, according to the ministry's data for January to August:

  • Malaysia, the second market, sent 2,658,686 visitors, down 11.87%.
  • South Korea sent 769,930, down 24.78%, the steepest fall in the top ten.
  • Taiwan rose 6.57%, the United States 0.91%.
  • Japan fell 5.42%, the United Kingdom 3.44% and Germany 2.07%.

By 3 October the top five were China, Malaysia (2,982,095), India (1,751,485), Russia (1,281,214) and South Korea (860,655).

Middle East conflict and airfares

Fighting in the Middle East began on 28 February 2026. By April, The Nation reported, Middle East arrivals for January to April were down 32.17% at 103,053, and total April arrivals fell 7% to 2.37 million. Airlines raised fares and cut frequencies on higher fuel costs. Surasak said in early October that some airline flight cancellations had a minor effect on arrivals.

For a hotel or tour operator, the mix matters as much as the total. China's gain is concentrated around holidays, as the Golden Week jump shows, while Malaysia, the second market, and South Korea are shrinking. A business that planned 2026 around Chinese volume needs that recovery to hold between holidays.

The minister expects arrivals to ease in the week after 3 October as Chinese, Korean, Hong Kong and Malaysian travellers return to normal routines. The next weekly update will show how far Chinese arrivals fall back from the Golden Week peak of 133,946.

FAQ

How many foreign tourists has Thailand received in 2026?

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports counted 23,452,895 foreign arrivals from 1 January to 3 October 2026, down 3.88% on the same period of 2025.

Are Chinese tourists coming back to Thailand?

Yes, in part. China was up 16.05% year on year through August and sent 3,999,854 visitors by 3 October, but that follows a 33.55% fall in 2025, and the 6.7 million target for 2026 looks out of reach.

What is Thailand's 2026 foreign tourist target?

It was about 36.7 million at the start of the year and was lowered in April to about 32.14 million, according to Bernama. The ministry expects the year to land close to 2025's 32.97 million.

Sources

arrivalschinatourismmalaysiaministry-of-tourismtat

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